From Counter-Force to Counter-Value: Decoding Iran’s Evolving Retaliation Strategy
For years, regional strategy in the Middle East operated around a predictable script of calibrated counter-force signalling. When military strikes occurred, retaliation typically focused on direct military assets—airfields, missile launching sites, intelligence installations, and forward military bases. However, recent conflict dynamics indicate a fundamental paradigm shift: - Tehran has increasingly pivoted away from pure counter-force targeting toward a multidomain "punishment campaign" focused on counter-value targets. Rather than seeking tactical parity on a conventional battlefield against superior air power, the strategy focuses on holding high-value economic infrastructure, energy corridors, and systemic network nodes at risk. This shift has become visible in the last 7 days as USA and Israel hit civilian targets in Iran, then as a tit-for-tat action Iran is hitting American interest...
