Why is Russia Pissed with Ukraine – It's Billions in Lost Royalty, and Security Risks

History

It’s been over 380 days since Russia attacked Ukraine. Many people are still confused as to why did Russia attack Ukraine in 2022 after capturing Crimea in 2014 and after declaring Luhansk and Donetsk as independent countries in 2022; just a few days before the attack on Ukraine commenced. There are several questions in people’s minds as to why 2 Eastern Slavic countries are fighting each other; why does Russia want to demilitarise Ukraine and be always neutral

The answer lies in the breakup of the USSR / Soviet Union and the things that Ukraine has done ever since. After the breakup of the Soviet Union when the smaller former soviet states became independent nations, they inherited soviet military hardware, military hardware manufacturing units, nuclear weapons, nuclear delivery systems, and a lot more. All these were initially claimed by Russia, as the rightful heir to the Soviet Union. But then reality dawned in, and Russia decided to let the former soviet states keep the military hardware including tanks, ships, rocket delivery systems, and small arms manufacturing units but decided to retain the nuclear weapons, their delivery systems, their stockpile, and maintenance infrastructure. Besides these NATO and Russia had agreed that NATO will not expand east. Russia considers Ukraine as the red line that the west or NATO must not cross.

Russia Retains Weapons

To formalize this, the Budapest deal was signed as in which former Soviet states handed over nuclear weapons and their delivery systems including everything to Russia. Russia which had retained the firing codes for nuclear weapons was only too happy to regain control over the vast arsenal of nuclear weapons spread across numerous former Soviet states. The deal also cleared the way for former Soviet states to have an independent foreign policy while keeping in mind the security concerns of Russia. Russia also signed separate deals with several of these former Soviet states to take over control of heavy military aircraft of Tupolev class but allowed them to retain Sukhoi and MiG class aircraft alongside Antonov transport aircraft.

Ukraine Refuses

While other former Soviet states duly obliged Russia, Ukraine was a thorn in Russia's eyes from the very beginning. While other former Soviet states didn’t have too many large military infrastructure manufacturing units, Ukraine was peculiar, as the most industrialized state of the USSR after Russia it not only had huge naval units, ports, and naval manufacturing units be it ships, turbines, gearboxes, and others; it also had massive military hardware industrial complexes functioning that manufactured everything from Antonov aircraft, its parts, machinery and more as well as cruise missiles, rockets and delivery systems, artillery, tanks, and more; the most of all former Soviet states.

Located at the mouth of the intersection of Russia and Europe, Ukraine provided west/NATO a peek into Russia and Russia as a buffer against the expanding west. Any country in such a situation should have played a balancing role but Ukraine made some critical mistakes and played into the hands of Western countries. Egged on by the west, in particular, Bill Clinton led America; Ukraine not only provided western scientists and engineers access to former soviet military hardware manufacturing units but also sensitive technology in use in aircraft and ships.

Russia Loses Hundreds of US$ Billions in Royalty

Despite repeated requests from Russia not to do so, Ukraine signed a deal with the west to destroy many Tupolev class aircraft including Tu 22, and Tu 95 in exchange for money and perhaps some weapons. This was the start of the time when Ukraine pissed off Russia. Soviet Russia developed the lone Antonov 225 Mriya, the world’s largest flying aircraft but it was Ukraine that was making money flying it to ferry very heavy loads. Do remember Russian Army entered the Antonov plant a few km outside Kyiv and deliberately destroyed the lone Antonov 225 Mriya and its half-built cousin.

Then next came the chance to make big monetary gains courtesy of China. China as a technologically deficient country has always resorted to stealing military equipment designs/drawings/IPs. But with Ukraine it didn’t have to do anything, it just paid money to Ukraine and got its hand on several Russian equipment. All this left Russia mighty displeased as it didn’t get a single penny in royalty. China bought everything from tanks, artillery, rockets, and 3 decommissioned aircraft carriers (now converted to floating hotels and casinos) as well as a 75% complete Varyag carrier that is now Liaoning, but still no royalty to Russia.

Next, the Chinese bought the Sukhoi 33 prototype and related schematic / IPR from Ukraine to develop J 15 Shenyang, again with no royalty to Russia. Next Ukraine sold a cruise missile possibly named Korshun including all its schematic/ IPR to China, again with no royalty to Russia. Originally developed by Soviet Russia the cruise missiles’ entire setup came into the hands of Ukraine. Then is sold T80 tanks to Pakistan, but no royalty to Russia. Ukraine next sold missile canister know-how to China, Pakistan, and a few other countries including Israel, again with no royalty to Russia.

Next China acquired many Ukrainian companies making military equipment in Ukraine either directly or indirectly, but again no royalty to Russia. But it crossed the limit when China tried to buy Motor Sich, an aircraft engine-making company that eventually forced even USA to intervene and literally arm-twist Ukraine to stop its sale.  All this forced Russian strongman Vladimir Putin to take a strong stand against Ukraine and teach it a lesson, by -

1. .Completely deindustrialize Ukraine by dismantling any and all military hardware industrial manufacturing unit and relocating them to Russia if possible;

2. Denuclearize Ukraine, and most importantly;

3. Deprive Ukraine of any military tech brain that can develop any major weapon system.

Ukraine is Putin’s MIRV

Vladimir Putin has tried to kill many birds with one stone by invading Ukraine. Like a MIRV while the missile has fallen on Ukraine but its MIRV warheads are meant to hit multiple target countries that have caused Russia enormous pain.

MIRV1/Target1 – China has caused Russia immense pain all these years even before the breakup of the Soviet Union. It has blatantly copied Russian weapons to make its own versions and sell them worldwide but after Ukraine sold them weapons and tech, it became more brazen with money buying out Ukrainian companies. All this without paying a penny in royalty to Russia. But now with Ukraine completely deindustrialized of any military hardware-making unit Russia will finally have China under a tight leash and force it to pay the royalty.

MIRV2/Target2 – NATO, despite the end of the Cold War, when the Warsaw pact collapsed should have stayed put; but it expanded east inching closer and closer to Russia. NATO which is basically a European country alliance thought that if we win over Ukraine, we will humiliate Russia, which is economically and militarily weak (during the 1990s). But they forgot Russia when pushed to the brink is most dangerous and will do anything and everything that nobody expects it to. Also, Russia has all NATO nations under its thumb courtesy of their dependence on Russian oil and gas. If Russia switches off the tap Europe will suffer from a modern-day ‘ice age’.

MIRV3/Target3 – Ukraine besides China sold missile cannisterization tech, as well as several other critical techs to many countries including Israel, and Pakistan but yet again no royalty to Russia was paid. That Russia is mighty displeased with Israel when it attacks Syria despite Russian presence was evident when Russia said Golan Heights is an ‘occupied Syrian territory’. This immediately prompted the Israeli PM to make a visit to Russia, ostensibly to talk about the safety of Jews in Ukraine but in reality, to request not to destroy industrial units in Ukraine from which it sources a lot of military hardware and to not muddle its position. So much so a deconfliction protocol was set up as per which a hotline was established between Israeli MoD and Russian Corps HQ in Syria as per which Israel with inform Russia of its attacks beforehand and Russia will switch off its radars so as not to pick out Israel warplanes or missiles. Israel mainly wants to reduce Iranian influence in Syria. However, the recent Saudi-Iran deal and reentry of Syria into the Arab fold has put a spanner in Israel's grand plans via the Abraham accords is a different matter.

MIRV4/Target4 – Russia doesn’t have international policing or territorial ambitions like the USA. It just wants to keep its borders safe from the west with eastern European nations acting as a buffer zone. Also, it doesn’t want the USA to steal any more of its technology. The USA by dangling money carrot has stolen a lot of Russian technology; from Yak 141 that was copied onto F35 B STVOL, as well as Zhuk radar, Mig 25 and Mig 29 tech.

MIRV5/Target5 - JCPOA with Iran is still in the doldrums after Trump foolishly withdrew from it. By attacking Ukraine, Russia has signaled to all countries who are putting pressure on Iran like the USA, and Israel not to overdo it as it has strategically invested in Iran just like Syria and will not take kindly undue pressure on that country.

MIRV6/Target6 - Countries and institutions that are putting sanctions on Russia are forgetting that it isn’t a one-product economy. Many western countries are dependent on Russian exports for one or other things. Russia has already stated that once it achieves its objective of completely demilitarising, and deindustrializing Ukraine it will leave, and I think this process can take up to 2.5 years.

MIRV7/Target7 -  Countries and institutions that are putting sanctions on Russia are forgetting that it isn’t a one-product economy. While they stop other countries from dealing with Russia but they calmly continue buying things from Russia that they need. Recently France bought Uranium from Russia. The USA continues to buy Titanium from Russia. India has massively increased its crude oil purchase from Russia at a discounted rate, many say this extra purchase is being done to feed the European market Russian oil via India. Also recently Russian and Saudi signed a deal to buy Russian diesel at a discounted rate, quite possible that this diesel will end up in Europe or Saudi will use it for domestic use while selling its own diesel to Europe.

Turkish Mischief to Help Ukraine

No its not about Turkey supplying Bayraktar drones to Ukraine. Not many people know that Turkey is building the Istanbul Canal, an artificial sea-level waterway, which connects the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara, and thus to the Aegean and Mediterranean seas. Istanbul Canal will bisect the current European side of Istanbul and thus make Istanbul an island between Asia and Europe with a shoreline of the Black Sea, the Sea of Marmara, the Istanbul canal, and the Bosphorus thus bypassing the current Bosphorus Straits. 

Turkey says the Istanbul canal aims to minimize shipping traffic in the Bosphorus, thus allowing more ships into the Black Sea. Presumably Ukraine will be its biggest beneficiary of the canal, as it enjoys the biggest shoreline on the Black Sea and uses Bosphorus Straits to export millions of tons of foodgrains to other countries. The canal actually bypasses the Montreux Convention, an accord which limits the number, tonnage, and origin of warships from non-Black Sea powers that could enter the Black Sea via the Bosphorus Straits. 

When Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım announced that Istanbul Canal would not be subject to Montreux Convention, it rang alarm bells in Moscow, which felt the Black Sea was its own backyard but the canal will now see the entry of huge western warships; threatening Russia’s security. Russia couldn’t allow this to happen. So the construction of the canal was also one of the reasons to invade Ukraine.

Why Russia Hasn’t Captured Entire Ukraine by Now, Ukrainian have Fallen into Russian Trap

One must remember that 90 % of the population east of the Dnipro river is either ethnically Russian or Russian-speaking Ukrainian. Not many know that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is actually a Russian speaking Ukrainian and most of his life spoke only Russian before taking over as President. Russia has not captured or devastated Ukraine as was expected because this is not the Russian objective. Ukrainian jets are still flying, and Ukrainian air defense is still active, why. The reason is simple Russia hasn’t committed its main battle-hardened, and battle-ready army columns, or air force. Most are sitting pretty in their bass deep inside Russia. Those Russian soldiers who are being hit or captured are either novices or simply scouts, the Russian idea is to probe and gauge the Ukrainian readiness and capability. Once they fully know their capability Russians are expected to launch a massive assault into Ukraine.

Even though Ukraine is winning the battle on social media, on the ground, it is the Russians who are winning. Ukraine is reporting it has killed so many Russians or destroyed so much equipment but is refusing to divulge its own losses of men and military hardware. All the reports that Ukrainian forces have stalled their progress are false. The 64 km long column outside Kyiv didn't move in intentionally, as Russia wanted to avoid unnecessary bloodshed. Even Russian warships haven’t unleashed their terrifying arsenal at full capacity.

Do know Russia has a huge stock of tanks, rocket launchers, APCs, and jets to expend. It is letting the Ukrainian fire out and empty their arsenal. Once that is done and it is confirmed Ukrainians have no resupply coming in, Russians will calmly move in to destroy every single military-industrial complex in Ukraine, bump off weapon designers, and relocate and reassemble whichever unit deem necessary for Russia inside Russian territory.

Ukraine knows this well and is therefore asking NATO to enforce a ‘No Fly Zone’ and supply of jets, but even after USA's request, many East European nations aren’t as they know what will happen if they anger Russia. Do note Russia has already said imposing a ‘No Fly Zone’ or providing weapons and jets to Ukraine will be tantamount to participation by that country in the war. Though many NATO countries have supplied tanks they are all older generation ones that too a few dozen that won't make any dent. Even sending 5 to 6 MiG 29 won't help Ukraine. It is only a matter of time before Russia enforces a total capitulation of Ukraine. Once that happens Putin will calmly put 3 conditions: -

1. Ukraine recognizes Crimea, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Luhansk as Russian territory.

2. Ukraine will never join NATO and remain neutral as the buffer zone between Russia and the West.

3. Pay Russia hundreds of billions of dollars in lost royalty and war expenses. 

Overall what Russia wants, here is the tentative list :-

1. Donbas - done

2. Landbridge to Crimea - done

3. Control of BlackSea & make Ukraine landlocked - all done except Odessa

4. Land route to  Transnistria - pending.

5. Securing oil and gas reserves east of Dnipro river - pending.

This will have to happen and Russia is in no hurry to enforce Ukraine’s capitulation. Let’s see how long Ukraine can hold out against Russia.