After AUKUS Deal How Many SSNs Will Indian Navy Need Afterall

 

AUKUS Deal

France and Australia were about to sign a US$ 65 billion (AU$ 90 billion) deal to build 12 conventional AIP-powered versions of Barracuda SSN called ‘Shortfin’ Barracuda. The deal which was in the making for the last 6-7 years, was so important for France and believed it had the RAN/Royal Australian Navy deal in its pocket that it reportedly let many smaller but significantly numerous contracts.  Aussie PM who was reportedly directly in touch with the French president on the deal and supported the deal. But suddenly either in late 2019 or early 2020 he started to have second thoughts on the deal, and asked high powered team comprising of RAN experts and men from several ministries, and financial; experts to look for alternatives.

They after much deliberations concluded there was no point in going for a conventional AIP-powered submarine that operates only a few hundred miles off the coastline when the need was to patrol and guard vast stretches of deep ocean perhaps thousands of miles away from the coastline. As such going for a nuclear-powered submarine was found a prudent choice. As such negotiations were started with the US first which decided to help to provide support systems but for reasons unknown or for viability reasons didn’t offer any of its SSN/SSGN design. So, Australia got in touch with the UK, which agreed to provide its Astute Class SSN design.

Thus, AUKUS tripartite deal was formed to develop and build 8 SSGNs based on Astute class SSN design. The new submarines' main task will be to patrol the vast stretch of the waters in the southern Pacific and the southern Indian Ocean, as well as patrol Chinese SSN/SSBN that has become a headache for many countries be it the UK, USA, Australia, or even India. RAN is building 8 SSGN despite having no adversary in the neighborhood, with only distant China poking its nose into areas that RAN considers it's own.

Now Australia instead of AUS$ 65 billion for 12 ‘Shortfin’ Barracuda will spend anywhere between AUS$ 268 to 368 billion to buy 8 SSNs from USA / UK with up to Virginia / Astute class submarines with Perth base, HMAS Stirling, from 2027 will host to a rotational presence of British and U.S. nuclear-powered submarines to build Australia's experience. Australian taxpayers will have to foot the entire bill. They need to ask themselves 65 billion to 268/368 billion what was a better deal.

How Many SSNs Indian Navy Need

Indian Navy is in the process of getting its 6^th Scorpene class SSK submarine, which is beside the 8 Sindhughosh class and 4 Shishumar class submarines. Apart from these at SBC near Vizag S2/INS Arihant, S3/INS Arighat 6000 ton SSBN were built with S4/INS Aridhaman about to roll out in a few months. While plans are in place to further build the 13000-ton S5/6/7 that will be more than double of Arihant class at SBC that will be true SSBN. Once the S5/6/7 rollout is by 2036; then S2/3/4 will morph into SSGN.

While the 13000-ton S5/6/7 will carry the K5 (5000 km range)/ K6 (6000 km range) missiles the S2/3/4 will carry the Nirbhay SLCM with a range of around 1500 km and ER SLCM version of Brahmos. However, the main concern now for IN is building a fleet of SSNs not only to guard the SSBNs and CBGs but also shadow SSBN / SSN of our adversaries that intrude into the northern Indian Ocean, the area that IN considers its own sphere of patrol and influence. Ideally, SSBNs the world over travel with 2 SSNs in guard but IN can't afford that luxury, so IN will have to make do with 1 SSN and if possible 1 or 2 UUVs OR Unmanned Underwater Vehicles guard the slow-moving SSBNs.

While typically SSGNs don’t travel with guard SSNs. So now the question arises ‘How many SSNs IN need?’ 6 are being built under Project 78A. My calculation says the IN needs 9 SSNs at least,

1. 3 SSN each to guard the 3 SSBNs. 

2. 3 SSN each to guard the 3 CBGs. 

3. 3 SSN to patrol the high seas and shadow other SSBN/SSN of hostile navies and also guard SSBN/CBG in an emergency.

Many may say we don’t need so many SSNs and say that 1 SSN can not only guard a CBG but also an SSBN. Then I must tell you that SSN is not a car, and after every trip the SSN the fastest of all 3 types of nuclear submarines will have to be thoroughly checked. Indian Navy has operated the Akulka SSGN / INS Chakra II on a 10-year lease as an SSN. After returning it 1 year ahead of schedule, Indian Navy is all set to get another Akula SSGN / INS Chakra III by early 2025 and if all goes well may also well go for the 40% complete Akula SSGN (Irbis) as INS Chakra IV, all this to help Indian Navy crew familiarize with how to operate nuclear submarine, especially SSNs.

India & France Post AUKUS Deal

After Australia ditched France with the AUKUS deal now the question arises of what will France do to get over the shock. One possibility is France will deepen its defense ties with India, France can:-

1. Provide HEU / Highly Enriched Uranium for IN fleet of 6 or  SSN.

2. Lower the price per unit of follow-on 6 Scorpene submarine, it may be known that MDL is asking for 3 more Scorpene submarine deal from MoD to amortize its cost.

3. Help develop a better variant of UTTAM AESA radar & KAVERI aircraft engine. 

4. Help refine the INS Vikrant/IAC 1 design to develop an LHD design on the lines of French Mistral LHD.

Let us hope better sense prevails in Delhi and Paris that allows them to work together more.