Iran Attacks Israel, Now Humiliated Israel Wants to Attack Iran to Restore Neighborhood Bully Image – Options for India

On April 1 2024 Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria was attacked. A fleet of F-35 of IDF that took off from Nevatim Airbase fired missiles at a building inside the diplomatic premises killing 7 IRGC men including 2 top generals. This was a clear violation of the Vienna Convention that states ‘no matter what diplomatic premises are the sovereign territory of a country’, and ‘whoever is inside the diplomatic premises must be accorded diplomatic immunity and must never be touched’. But Israel which gives a middle finger to everything be it law or convention or rules, didn’t give a damn and attacked it.

Iran immediately asked the world to condemn it, but no one came forward, which basically implies, that Israel’s godfather USA either knew about it and gave tacit approval or got wind of it when it couldn’t do anything to stop it. Iran wanted the world community at the UN to condemn Israel and its strike, the same way it did in 1996 when the Iran Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan was raided by the Taliban in its previous iteration and 12 of its diplomats were killed. At that time world community at the UN condemned the act, and Iran which had made up its mind to attack the Taliban stepped back. But this time when Russia brought the proposal; USA, UK, France, and Germany categorically said no.

I strongly believe, that if the world community had admonished Israel in unison for its 1 April 2024 act, Iran wouldn’t have had to resort to the missile and drone barrage on the intervening night of 13 – 14 April 2024. Anyways the attack of Iran under ‘Operation True Promise’ was a roaring success. Although Israel said 99% of the projectiles were downed, yet Nevatim and Ramon air bases in the south and central Israel and a major intelligence centre up north near Golan Height were hit. The IDF has ensured there is a total media blackout about the intelligence centre and only limited information is coming out about Nevatim and Ramon air bases.

https://rbt-defense.blogspot.com/2024/04/iran-attacks-israel-humiliates-it.html

The end result of this Iran attack is that Israel has been comprehensively humiliated. Israel which acted as a neighborhood bully in West Asia/Middle East for a long time has been taught a lesson. Those who are blind supporters of Zionist apartheid will continue to boast of Israel's supremacy but the fact is Israel has little to no room to act. This after, the USA already having clarified that it will not support Israel in an attack on Iran because it wants to avoid an escalation that leads to a regional war, that will put its military bases in various countries of the Middle East as well as disrupt its oil and gas supplies that too in an election year. But the UK has said, it will continue to support Israel; because it created Israel with the Belfor declaration as well as created the fake Hashemite Kingdoms of Jordan and Iraq to create wedge and instability between Shia and Sunni besides continue looting the resources of the region.

So why does Israel have little to no room to act, there many reasons but the prime reason was Iran didn’t go for wholesale destruction, instead launched ‘Operation True Promise’ for a limited objective and achieved it. Once its target was achieved Iran said, ‘Our job done, don’t want to escalate, but if Israel hits, we will hit back without warning’, mind you this should scare Israel. Because now Iran knows Israeli capabilities (Iron Dome, David Sling, THAAD, and Arrow) and it’s a matter of time before they find ways around them to ensure next time more missiles per target hit bull’s eye. The Iranians did not use any weapons Israel didn’t know it had, it just used a lot of them.

But the Iranians now have almost a full map of what Israel’s missile defense system looks like, as well as where in Jordan and the Gulf the US has planted its missile installations, how long it takes to intercept and how dense is the air defense umbrella. It also knows how long it takes to prepare them, how Israeli society responds and how IDF responds.

This is besides the cost incurred by Israel and its allies. While Iran spent a maximum of 75 to 100 million dollars to hit targets in Israel, Israel and its allies spent 3 to 4 billion dollars to stop them. Crucially, Iran can now easily reverse engineer all the intel it has gathered from this attack to execute a much more deadly and credible attack the next time. While the US and Israel will have to re-design away from their current model which has been compromised. Its’ their need to succeed in stopping this type of choreographed attack in the future is thus making this proposition very costly. Both Israel and the USA will have to spend in the range of 30 to 40 billion dollars to redesign their defense mechanism.

Please note, that Netanyahu and the Israeli government seeking a quick, hot, and urgent war where they can pull in the USA entered the Gaza war, but Hamas has forced them to stay put in Gaza, and even after nearly 7 months, Israel hasn’t achieved any of its tactical or strategic goals. Iranians on the other hand prefer a longer war of attrition, that bleeds Israel of its deterrence capabilities and makes it seek an ally in Arab nations that’s too at too high a cost. Do remember, no nation ever gives a prior warning before launching an attack, but Iran did; it means Iran wanted the Israelis to know they were coming. Reportedly only 7 missiles struck the targets, but if next time Israel repeats the mistake of April 1, 2024, that number may touch 50 at least; and this time Iran won’t give a prior warning.

It is for this reason that after initially saying it will hurt Iran, Israel said it doesn’t seek a war. But now has decided to attack Iran, ostensibly because it realizes that Iran has hurt their narcissist ego nature very badly. Their attitude of neighborhood bully has been shattered badly and needs to be restored by attacking Iran at any cost. It is for this reason, that a narcissist, egoistical Benjamin Netanyahu has now refused to take calls from world leaders to dial down. But he doesn’t realize, that Iran has already figured it out and is waiting for it well-prepared. Iran has said that any Iranian response will be massive and devastating to Israel without warning. So, what can Israel do: -

1. Attack Iranian nuclear sites, it’s a big no-no, as it will lead to a catastrophe.

2. Attack Iran's economic hubs like Bandar Abbas, and Chah Bahar, it will lead to a massive Iranian response.

3. Attack Iran assets, members, staff, and officials through MOSSAD anywhere in the world, that too will result in a massive Iranian response.

4. Attack Iran proxies through IDF, MOSSAD anywhere in the world, that too will result in a massive Iranian response.

As a compromise, USA may allow Israel an invasion of Rafah, the last refuge for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. All this says Iran has left Israel with very little room to maneuver. Probably, this is the reason that Israel is now pleading with the USA to help restore its image of the neighborhood bully, and the USA has now started begging through neutral Switzerland with Iran to allow Israel to do a ‘symbolic attack’, what a joke . As a compromise, USA may allow Israel an invasion of Rafah, the last refuge for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. But reportedly Iran has said a categorical NO, saying any Israeli attack will be met with a ferocious response. What happens now depends on who keeps a sane mind on shoulders in the Middle East.

India will make a mistake by taking sides, especially Israel. In all this, India has to learn a lot of lessons and explore its options while defending itself from China and Pakistan. While the Brahmos misfire was dubbed deliberate, it didn’t evoke a response from Pakistan. Either, it failed to detect the missile or simply didn’t want to reveal its existing detection and tracking systems. It means India is still supposedly in the dark about Pakistan’s capability to track and detect missiles launched from India. As for China, India has to be very-very careful, as China is not Pakistan. India will have to devise a much smarter plan to force China to reveal its capabilities and capacities to take on India’s offensive capabilities and take out India’s defensive capabilities. India will need to develop a robust multi-layered air defense system and a track and defense system.

Remember that, unlike Israel, India is faced with a peculiar situation, it has barren and snow-covered mountains in the north, thick forest-covered mountains in the northeast, plains and desert in the central and west, and sea in the south. As such India needs to develop a multi-layered air defense system that can take out UAVs, supersonic/stealth fighter jets, MLRS, strategic and tactical ballistic missiles as well as long/medium range and short-range cruise missiles. Most importantly India needs to develop newer air defense missile systems and ramp up its air defense missile system production, without or without involving the private sector players. However, it’s all about the game of patience, the one who plays it better will win on the day of war any day. It remains to be seen how; India can prepare for such a situation.