Not Qatari Mirages, India Should Have Gone For UAE Mirage 2000, A Tale of Missed Chances - (Bulk Buy, Production, Mirage 4000)

 

In 2020, I had published an opinion piece on www.idrw.org - (UAE Mirage 2000, Last Chance for India to Grab These Magnificent Jets), below is the piece yet again along with my latest additions to why India should still only go for UAE Mirage 2000, or not at all. Also, why Mirage 2000 has actually turned out to be a tale of missed chances; be it bulk buy, production, and Mirage 4000.

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2020-

{UAE Mirage 2000, Last Chance for India to Grab These Magnificent Jets)

Around late 2019 there were reports that the UAE Air Force which operates the 2^nd most number of Mirage 2000 jets after France was planning to sell around 24 to 36 fighter jets to the Iraqi Air Force. The reports also said that the UAE wanted to provide Iraq with these jets to be stationed inside or near the Kurdistan region after refurbishing the jets to the latest model. This may be a deterrence against Turkey. Whatever the reason, both France and Dassault refused and put their foot down, France perhaps for fear of these jets falling into the wrong hands and Dassault for total lack of relevant support and service infrastructure in Iraq. 

UAE Air Force which is buying both the 5^th generation F35 jets from the USA and 4.5 generation Rafale jets from France in good numbers (both at least 36) will have 69 surplus Mirage 2000 jets that it wants to hive off or get rid of asap. Since both France and Dassault refused to help the UAE send these magnificent jets to Iraq, the next best option for the UAE could be to sell these jets to Taiwan which operates 60 of these jets. But if they do that it will seriously antagonize China and the UAE surely won't want to risk that. So the next best option is to sell these jets to India which currently operates 50 of these jets. It is perhaps the last chance for IAF to grab these jets that are perhaps surplus for the home county. IAF not only has service and service and support setup in place but also has deals with both France and Dassault to refurbish these jets to Mirage 2000 UPG standard. It’s the last chance for IAF to grab these jets that are basically surplus. 

Lets’ hope better sense prevails and just as it is buying surplus Mig 29s from Russia (currently 21 but all probability may go for all 34), IAF currently operates 50 of these jets, too should give a thought to buying these jets from either the same of 24 to 36 jets for a price that doesn’t burn a hole in it budget ultimately operating around 80 of these jets, since neither Qatar (12 jets) nor Greece that operates (25 jets) will want to sell there Mirage 2000 jets to India owing to their own exigencies. The chances of UAE selling all 67 off is less since some of these are specifically built only for use by the UAE Air Force.

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2024

The Mirage 2000 is an extremely capable aircraft, it has proved its worth time and again in precision strikes in Kargil and Balakot. IAF really loves them and, as such is trying to keep at least 3 squadrons (17 each) flying till retirement. This is the reason why IAF has bought 2nd hand Mirage 2000s for cannibalization twice from France to keep the fleet airworthy. But now talks are going around that IAF is evaluating the Greek and Qatari Mirage 2000s to boost the aircraft numbers since both are now eager to sell off these jets. Greece, wants to clear its storage space after retiring them; at least 5 are reportedly flightworthy with max. 20-25% life left; while Qatar wants to sell them under pressure from the USA, reportedly 6-8 of them have at least 25% life left in them. Both Greece and Qatar are also offering the spares they already have in stock, plus Qatar is offering MICA missiles. While the deal looks lucrative as offered by Greece and Qatar, the fact is that both are offering jets built and flying since the 1990s.

On the other hand, out of 67 UAE Mirages, of which most were ordered in the 1990s; 36 of them are the very last Mirage 2000s ever built. Ordered in 2001 and built and delivered from 2003 to 2007. This means these 36 have flown around 20 years or less. UAE is said to have used its Mirage 2000 fleet sparingly. It means these last 36 may have at least 30-35% life left in them. Airframe-wise it would be a way better deal for IAF to buy at least these 36 jets than buying from Greece and Qatar. Already France has given approval to UAE to ship 30 of its 67 Mirage 2000s to Morocco. A surprising deal since Morocco only ever operated the Mirage F1 and F5s, and doesn't have the infrastructure to maintain Mirage 2000 jets. If these jets reach Morocco, there's a good chance Pakistan pilots will be able to get a look into them, something denied even by Qatar.

 A Tale of Missed Chances - (Bulk Buy, Production, Mirage 4000)

1. When France first offered IAF the Mirage 2000s in the mid-1980s; it reportedly had offered 84 to 96 of these jets but IAF chose to buy only 60, since then after many crashes and more later on buys, IAF is still operating 51 of these jets in 3 squadrons (17 each). IAF should have gone for all 84 (4 squadrons), but for seemingly differing priority and financial constraints only about 3 squadrons were ordered. A great chance missed at bulk buy.

2. Then in late 1995 or early 1996 France offered to transfer the Mirage 2000 production line to India with a deal for 150 jets along with further engine development. A really lucrative deal but then the Congress govt owing to upcoming elections most likely differed the deal. Then BJP under AB Vajpayee came to power for 13 days and then the National Front govt ruled till 1998. Dont know, who or when decided against this lucrative deal and opted for 12 twin-seater Su-30 from Russia. IAF thought it was a good deal since the jets' open architecture and scope for further improvement means IAF could well develop it as per its' requirement. Thus came out; the Su-30 MKI (the 12 Su-30 were returned to Russia). Encouraged by Su-30 MKI, Russia offered such deals to others that resulted in Su-30 MKM / MKK and more. Thus a great chance to manufacture these jets alongside further engine development scope was lost.

3. If the IAF, had opted for the Mirage 2000s production line in India; there was a good chance, that some good brains in India, would have drilled some sense into IAF / HAL/ Govt to opt for grabbing the design schematics of Mirage 4000. The lone Technological Demonstrator and its schematics would have given India; a great chance to develop a twin-engine jet. As it used the same Mirage 2000 engine, the resulting jet would have given IAF a better jet than the Su 30 MKI possibly (slightly less power with afterburner). Do keep in mind that though Dassault Rafale even with a less powerful engine than Su-30 MKI it carries almost similar weapons payload. The resulting jet also could well have been developed into TEDBF to be used by the Indian Navy, and could well have become the base for developing the AMCA. It would have also allowed India the much-needed supply chain, allowing for enhanced scope for indigenization.

4.  If the IAF, had opted for the Mirage 2000s production line in India; it would have meant that if IAF had opted for the Rafale jets now; an existing Mirage 2000 production line (with an established supply chain) would have made the deal lucrative. It could easily be shifted to Rafale, and as such whatever numbers of Rafale that India would have bought the cost would have been very low, as compared to now, when India is shelling out hefty money to buy 36 Rafale for IAF, 27 for IN and more will be under MRFA.

5.  Remember, we are still not able to develop a Kaveri engine with the required specifications. If the IAF, had opted for the Mirage 2000s production line in India with Mirage 4000 TD design schematics; the biggest advantage we would be having is a mature SNECMA engine. We could have easily further developed the engine AS A KAVERI engine for use with LCA Tejas. Today we are doing the same thing, but only getting the SNECMA engine core and are paying huge money for it. Also, it would have saved India a lot of indignation that we suffered at the hands of the USA after Pokharan 2, which literally forced us to rub our nose on the ground to restart the supply of GE engines for LCA Tejas.

Let's hope we don't make such a mistake ever again. If at all we need Mirage 2000s in flying condition, then opt for the 36 with UAE.