Tejas MK3 Twin Engine to Replace Su 30 MKI After 2045

As the world reels from USA revelation of 6th Generation aircraft F47 that was earlier called NGAD, it has become impossible for India to overlook it. As of now the Indian Air Force/IAF is happy flying 3rd Gen, 4th Gen, and 4.5++ Gen fighters like Mig-29/29K, Rafale/Rafale M, Su-30 MKI, Jaguar, and Mirage 2000. Most of these will still keep flying till 2035 and 2040 when the world is already looking forward to the 6th Gen fighter like NGAD/F47 (USA), Tempest (UK), and Mig-41 (Russia) and these will be launched around the same time as 2035 to 2040.

IAF as yet is still trying to get its hands on a 5th Gen fighter. Its homegrown effort the AMCA will reportedly be a 5.5 Gen fighter. In all likelihood, the first AMCA TD will come out only by 2035, a time when the world would have probably already seen the launch and induction of 6th Gen fighters like the NGAD (USA), and Tempest (UK). Mig-41 (Russia) is more likely to emerge by 2040. IAF is aware it's really falling behind in the race, so it had attempted to get hands-on Su-57 (Russia) customized as FGFA, but that plan didn’t materialize.

IAF must realize that it has already missed the 5th Gen fighter bus. As such it must now focus on acquiring a 6th Gen fighter. Logically India should acquire the schematics of YF-23 from Northrop Grumman from Northrop Grumman and use it as a base to develop its 6th Gen fighter. As for AMCA, India should develop as many Technological Demonstrators of AMCA and iron out the nitty-gritty of these jets. It will help them develop an idea as to how to develop an indigenous 6th Gen fighter. As for experience IAF can acquire fully loaded 3 squadrons of Su-57 and gain as much experience of flying a 5th Gen fighter. This will allow them to skip the 5th Gen fighter rat race and optimize its resources, properly allocate its budget and standardize its aircraft fleet.

While plans are in place to increase the sanctioned full IAF aircraft squadron strength to 60 by 2047, up from current 49. But problem is how to shore up the numbers. Note that 60 squadrons or 21x60=1260 fighter jets are still 11 more than the previously approved 49 squadrons in 1950s (original requirement put up by IAF was for 54 squadrons). Effectively IAF reached 47.5 squadrons in mid-1980s (the maximum ever), and has since the mid-2000s been war gaming for a 2-front war with a minimum of 42 squadrons due to falling fighter jet numbers.

One option is to shift Dassault Rafale production line to India to shore up the numbers. These 4.5++ Gen fighter jets from France are fairly advanced and with Su 30 MKI in IAF fleet can serve India easily till 2060, even though due to lack of stealth they are not at part with 5th or 6th Gen fighter jets. However, IAF needs to figure out a plan now in mid-2020s itself as to what will replace the Su 30 MKI that by then will have been in service with IAF for 60 years. This will help development agencies tasked with aircraft development in India to work on it and deliver a fully equipped aircraft at the earliest in the best possible manner. 

Note that currently DRDO/HAL/ADA/ADE all have their hands full numerous projects to work on. These include HLFT 42, AMCA, Tejas MK1/MK1A/MK2, TEDBF, and more. Note all these are at the best 4 or 4.5 generation fighter jets. The future war scenario of India with regards to adversaries implies that India simply can’t use the 5th Gen fighter jets everywhere. These fighter jets are built for specific roles and to use them in all sorts of operations across all front lines is akin to using ‘Sword to Cut Vegetable’.

A straight answer for this is to develop a futuristic multi role twin engine Tejas Mk 3 in a fighter-bomber role, which will actually be a notch above the 24-ton Tejas MK 2. It will have to be a 34-ton MTOW beast equipped with all types of advanced sensors, pods, AESA radars, 2 flat exhaust 110 KN Kaveri 2.0 engine, 16 hard points for ability to carry a weapons load of at least 12 or 13 ton that will keep the futuristic Tejas Mk 3 at par with F15 EX. Do note that it is this multi role, immense weapons carrying capacity and use of advanced sensors that have ensured that F15 EX will remain in service with USAF for at least next 30 years.

Also, note that the 5th Gen fighter jets are not designed to carry huge payloads. They are meant to execute critical missions and are not meant to fly over long distances, climb high icy mountains or traverse through desert or high seas for long duration. These are something that IAF needs to contend with operationally as its surrounded by sea, desert, and icy mountains. Even though, USA revelation of 6th Generation aircraft F47 has tried to cure many issues that plagued the 5th Generation aircraft like F22 or F35. Hoeever, note that USA with 750 air bases worldwide aspires for global dominance but India only aspires to dominate the North Indian Ocean, South Asia and its northern fringes, and choke points of South East Asia and West Asia.

For this purpose, IAF can make use of futuristic Tejas Mk 3, Dassault Rafale, AMCA (all twin-engine), and single engine Tejas Mk1A (which will inevitably be rechristened MK1 once all Tejas Mk1 are upgraded to MK1A standards), and Tejas Mk2 together totalling 60 squadron are more than enough to safeguard India’s skies from 2040 onwards till 2080s at least. Keep in mind this is with regards to phased retirement of all fighter jets like Mig-29/29K, Su-30 MKI, Jaguar, and Mirage 2000 that are currently in service in IAF by 2045.

However, all depends on the time and size of budgetary allocations that are made by the government for the futuristic Tejas Mk3, as well as the ability of well intentioned defense experts and aircraft manufactures in India to impress upon the government of India to focus on the development of Tejas Mk3 at the earliest so that there is no gaps in procurement of the fighter aircraft in enough numbers to meet the much desired 60 squadron requirement by the year 2047.