Pahalgam Terror Attacks – A Pulwama Redux, Balakot Strike Rerun and Current Situation

 

 

The Pahalgam Terror Attacks in Jammu and Kashmir have shaken India to the core. This has forced India into a situation where things could go anywhere from here. This attack happened when the USA Vice President JD Vance was in India with his family, visiting places across India. This attack came just days after Pakistan Army Chief Aseem Munir literally gave an open challenge to India, clearly distinguishing Pakistan and Muslims from India and Indians.

It Happened on 22 April 2025

On 22 April 2025, 7 terrorists affiliated with The Resistance Front, an affiliate of Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, opened fire on a group of tourists at the Baisaran Valley in Jammu and Kashmir, India. The terrorist massacred 26 people and injured more than 20 others. The attack was carried out by 7 terrorists in military-style uniforms using M4 carbines and AK-47s in an area crowded with tourists who were enjoying improved weather after days of rain. According to survivors, gunmen emerged from nearby forests and opened fire on the crowd after asking their names and religion.

In all, at least 27 civilians were killed in the attack, including 25 Indian tourists from various parts of India, 2 locals from Jammu and Kashmir, and 2 foreign tourists from Nepal and the UAE. Many of the dead included newlywed couples on their honeymoon. Despite the carnage, there were some heroic acts as well. A local Kashmiri man, Syed Adil Hussain Shah, tried to protect the tourists and stop the attack by wrestling the rifle out of one of the attacker’s hands but was killed in the effort. Another local Kashmiri businessman, Nazakat Ali, who does seasonal business in Chirmiri, Chhattisgarh, saved the lives of 11 members of 4 families from Chirmiri, Chhattisgarh, who were headed to Baisaran on his cue. His split-second decision to save them once he heard the noise from firing saved the 4 families from Chirmiri from sure death.

This dastardly act has resulted in protests nationwide demanding strict action to exact revenge. Leaders of all major nations have condemned these terror attacks. However, it is a huge mystery that despite heavy tourist traffic in Pahalgam, there was no security present on the 5.5 km Pahalgam-Baisaran stretch. You will be surprised that there was NOT EVEN ONE security picket, anywhere near the stretch. This attack reminds people of the 2019 Pulwama Attack that killed a bus full of security personnel. That suicide attack with a car filled with around 200 kg of RDX resulted in the death of 40 security personnel. After that attack, too, troll army gang members, armchair soldiers, and social media warriors were up in arms for an attack on Pakistan, which was later carried out indeed, but till this day, there are many mysteries related to that case that still remain unanswered. Likewise, a major mystery of Pahalgam attack is how could terrorists infiltrate so deep inside India to carry out the attack.

2019 Pulwama Attack & Series of Mysteries

This was a major terrorist attack that killed a bus full of security personnel. That suicide attack with a car filled with around 200 kg of RDX resulted in the death of 40. It's still a mystery how did so much RDX reached so deep inside Indian territory without raising alarm bells in intelligence circles. What is more shocking the car used in the attack was seen for days before the eventual attack.

Another mystery is the presence of Davinder Singh (pic above) in Pulwama till 2 days before the attacks. He was transferred 2 days before the attack. Surprising that months later, he was caught transporting 3 terrorists in a car into Srinagar. He was stopped during a routine check, and when questioned, he said, ‘You are doing this wrong, I have connections with top-level. ’ No one knows who were the top level he was referring to. Why this man was transporting 3 terrorists into Srinagar, and whose order and who were the ‘top level’ is a mystery till this day. It’s a mystery that why was such a long convoy of troops (2500 in all) was travelling by road that too through a stretch that was not properly sanitized.

An even greater mystery is the fact that when the disgraced police officer, Davinder Singh, was put in court, the government of India refused to allow his questioning or let him give a statement under the pretext of ‘national security’. Since then, the case has moved nowhere, and he is cooling his heels to this day in the safety of jail. The police officer who arrested him after questioning was reportedly later given a punishment posting, but nobody knows. His daughters are studying or have completed their studies in foreign universities, and reportedly, his wife too is based out of India.

Balakot Airstrike

 

Just like today, after the 14 February 2019 Pulwama Attack too, troll army gang members, armchair soldiers, and social media warriors were up in arms for an attack on Pakistan. This demand for retribution was answered with a precision air strike by the IAF on the Balakot terror base camp, by a ‘strike package’ involving 12 Mirage 2000 and 12 Su 30 MKI on 26 February 2019. The very next day PAF caught unawares launched a ‘counter strike’ wanting to give a befitting reply to India but it was cut to size and was left humiliated when it lost an precious F-16, shot down by a ‘old’ Mig 21 flown by Sqn Ldr Abhinandan who unfortunately was taken captive after his Mig 21 was shot down but India applied immense pressure on Pakistan to get him back in 72 hrs. This leads us to a question: Can India/IAF redo the Balakot Air Strike or another Surgical Strike?

Though everyone wants India to respond in the same way but problem is ‘the surprise is lost’. It must be noted that ‘you can’t fire the same bullet twice’. Here are the 5 reasons IAF is unlikely to redo a Balakot.

1. This time around, Pakistan is more prepared. It has more AEWC platforms than in 2019 in inventory and already has them in the air in anticipation of Balakot redux. Besides the US F-16 today, PAF also has the Chinese J10C fighter jets for countering threats from the IAF.

2. In Oct 2014, when addressing his first combined commanders' conference, PM Narendra Modi gave an operational directive that 'the threats (Pak) may be known, but the enemy (terrorists) may be invisible. This formalized counterterror operations as the Indian military's main task. End of hot war preparedness.

3. On 19 June 2020, by giving a clean chit to the PLA occupation of Indian territory in east Ladakh, PM Narendra Modi conveyed with great clarity that India lacked the political will to fight. Remember, he famously said ‘Na Koi Ghusa Tha Na Koi Ghusa Hai’. Yet after Galwan 2020, China has reached its stated 1959 Claim Line, meaning it has captured another 1000 sq km of Indian Territory.

4. In June 2023, in the presence of the astute President Putin, PM Narendra Modi said 'This is not an era of war. Any student of International Relations knows that in once-in-a-century global transformation which is underway, a military option is always on the table.

5. PM Narendra Modi government's 2016 & 2019 shabby use of military against Pakistan exposed not only the Indian Army & IAF's operational gaps to the world. They showed the Indian military's weak leadership unable to question political authority on professional matters. As said earlier problem is ‘the surprise is lost’. It must be noted that ‘you can’t fire the same bullet twice’. So, a rerun of the 2019 Balakot Air Strike or the 2016 Surgical Strike is highly unlikely.

    

Measures by India After the 2025 Pahalgam Terror Attacks

After PM Narendra Modi cut short his Saudi Arabia visit and flew back to India, and chaired an emergency CCS meet, the following measures were taken and announced by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri.

1. The 1960 Indus Water Treaty is suspended.

2. Attari Wagah Border closed.

3. All Pakistanis with a visa in India are asked to leave within 48 hrs. No SAARC visa exemption.

4. All military personnel in the Pakistan Embassy of New Delhi were declared ‘Persona Non Grata.’ India to withdraw all military personnel from the Indian Embassy in Pakistan.

5. The Pakistan Embassy in New Delhi is to shut down in 8 days.

Repercussions of the 2025 Pahalgam Terror Attacks

1. Tourism, the biggest contributor to Jammu and Kashmir's economy, is hit hard.

2. The US issues a ‘Do Not Travel’ advisory on Jammu and Kashmir.

3. People of Jammu and Kashmir protest against the killings in Dal Lake, Lal Chowk, Jammu.

4. Kashmiri students were abused and assaulted in many places in India.

As such, many unanswered questions remain.

1. How could terrorists infiltrate so deep inside Indian Administered Kashmir to carry out the attack?

2. What were the intelligence agencies, including RAW, IB, SIB, MI, doing?

3. Was there any local help for terrorists?

4. Whoever said everything is normal and no terrorism after the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir clearly jumped the gun, how and why.

Let us hope better sense prevails and the Indian Army can eliminate these terrorists in ground operations launched subsequently. Also, hope India opts for other measures, unlike the 2019 Balakot Air Strike or the 2016 Surgical Strike to reply to the Pahalgam Terror Attacks.