Rafale Production Line in India Could Help IAF Get 60 Squadron

 

Current Situation

First thing first, do note that IAF is looking at a precarious situation about its fighter strength. The fighter strength of the IAF has come down from the highest ever of 47.5 squadrons in the mid-1980s against sanctioned strength of 49 squadrons to a not-so-healthy 31 squadrons in 2025 and will be 29 squadrons at the end of 2025 when the last of 2 Mig 21 Bison squadrons are finally retired. This will go down further to 27 by 2032 end when the 2 oldest Jaguar squadrons are retired and most probably by 2035 all Jaguars are slated for retirement. Also, the entire fleet of 3 Mirage 2000 and 3 Mig 29 will also be retired from 2035 to 2036.

This means IAF will have 21 squadrons by 2037 and when 5 squadrons of DARIN III Jagaurs are put up for retirement by 2040 then by 2045 IAF squadron number will touch 16. A recent report stated that IAF lost over 150 fighter jets due to de-induction/retirement in the last 10 years whereas Pakistan and China; the opposing parties in IAF’s 2 front war scenario have together inducted over 450 fighter jets. Add to it the sluggish induction of fighter jets be it LCA MK1, and LCA MK1A both due to engine supply as well as the snail’s pace in development of Tejas MK2, TEDBF, AMCA, and HLFT42. 

Although GE 404/414 engines that will power the LCA MK1, and LCA MK1A are to be supplied by USA, which is not a trustworthy partner, but it's way beyond its commitment timelines. In all probability, LCA MK1, and LCA MK1A production line will be complete only by 2035. As I had predicted earlier Tejas MK2, TEDBF, AMCA, and HLFT42 are not expected before the 2038-2040 timeframe. As such IAF is staring at a very precarious situation vis-à-vis China.

IAF Needs 60 Squadron

All India needs to do is to apply simple common-sense ideas, but the point is, who will tell them of these ideas and set the ball rolling. A recent report submitted by IAF says it needs 60 squadrons or 21x60=1260 fighter jets by 2047. This is 11 more than the previously approved 49 squadrons in 1950s (original requirement was for 54 squadrons). Effectively IAF reached 47.5 squadrons in mid mid-1980s, and has since the mid-2000s been war gaming for a 2-front war with a minimum of 42 squadrons due to falling fighter jet numbers.

 

The only way it is possible is if the Dassault Rafale production line is set up in India, (most probably in Nagpur, Maharashtra). Do note that the 26 Rafale M contract is set to be signed for the Indian Navy, while the 36 Rafale for IAF bought as part of MMRCA have been inducted while an order for 114 more under MRFA is set to be given (a foregone conclusion unless the USA puts a spanner). But 36+114=150 will still not help IAF shore up numbers up to 1260; even if AMCA arrives by 2040. So the next best option is to set up a Rafale production line in India. India can produce/assemble at least 210 more Rafale or 10 squadrons more to meet its requirement. Add to it the 80 Rafale order for Saudi Arabia and 80 Rafale order set to be given by UAE as replacement of its Mirage 2000 fleet, and 36 Rafale from Indonesia. 

So, 210+80+80+36=406 Rafale can be built in India, but the condition is that the production line needs to be setup in the next 2 years; since Dassault will stop Rafale production from 2035 onwards and shift its production focus to the 6th generation FCAS. A production line of over 410 fighter jets manufactured/assembled in India would help the French company Dassault shore its Rafale deliveries which is over 230 in backlog as per current order books. Not just that the production line in India could help serve not just Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Indonesia as an MRO facility but also could cater to any future customers of Rafale as a production facility if there are any.

Do remember that once, Dassault stops the Rafale fighter jet production from 2035 onwards; it will be difficult to maintain the production line in India, and this production line can be kept running for maximum of another 3 or 4 years after which only spare parts will be available but for that to happen a proper supply chain too needs to be set up in India in the next 2 years since French suppliers for spares for Dassault Rafale will also be shifting their production focus to FCAS from 2035 onwards. Add to it is the quandary of IAF, whether to focus on AMCA as the 5th generation jet or completely shift focus to 6th generation jet; as most of the global fighter jet makers will shift focus to 6th generation jet from 2035 onwards.

I certainly believe that irrespective of AMCA being developed as a 5.5 generation fighter jet as IAF wants; it would do good to buy 4 or 5 squadrons of Su 57, the 5th generation fighter jet from Russia to acclimatize itself with a 5th generation fighter jet technology until the AMCA arrives after 2040. As a different idea, IAF would do good to promote the development of AMCA not as a 5th generation but as a 6th generation fighter jet, using the Northrop Gruman YF-23 as a base. This is important since a lot of discussions are going on about comparisons between a 5th-generation fighter and a 6th-generation fighter. In all sense and purpose; it will be a great idea to set up a Dassault Rafale production line in India as not only the 210 Rafales assembled in India will shore up numbers alongside the purchase of another 70 Su 30 MKI it will also help in developing its supply chain and industrial base that will come in handy in future aircraft development.