The New Syria - How the End of Civil War Plunged it into Proxy Tug-of-War

 

Introduction

As I had predicted long ago about repercussions of Fall of Syria, today exactly that is happening. For over a decade, the Syrian Civil War was defined by a mosaic of shifting frontlines: Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Damascus, rebel coalitions in the west, the Islamic State in the desert, and a unique experiment in Kurdish-led self-governance in the northeast.

Following the historic collapse of the Assad regime, Ahmed al-Sharaa assumed leadership of the central government in Damascus, marking the formal end of Syria’s 13-year civil conflict. However, the post-civil war era did not bring immediate stability. Instead, it accelerated a massive power shift in the northeast.

With the military integration of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the unified Syrian Army and the formal dissolution of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES), a domestic war ended—only to turn Syria into a zero-sum geopolitical battleground between two regional superpowers: Turkey and Israel.

1. Central & Eastern Syria (Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, Hasakah):- The primary theater where former Kurdish-led SDF units integrated into the central Ministry of Defense, transferring administrative oversight back to Damascus.

2. Northern Border Belt:- Heavily monitored by the Turkish military to prevent Kurdish armed groups from establishing operational bases near its southern frontier.

3. Southwestern Frontier (Golan Heights):- Monitored by Israeli defense forces to enforce red lines against external foreign deployments or hostile military bases near its border.

The Fall of DAANES and the SDF Merger

For years, the Syrian Democratic Forces—anchored by the Kurdish YPG—served as the primary boots-on-the-ground partner for the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS. In return, the Kurds built the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, governing nearly 30% of the country, including critical oil fields and agricultural hubs east of the Euphrates. However, the political calculations in Washington and Damascus shifted rapidly:-

1. The U.S. Pivot:- The United States redirected its diplomatic strategy toward strengthening the central transitional government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Washington quietly signaled to Kurdish leadership that direct protection for a separate entity was no longer viable.

2.  The Military Push:- Following government offensives and clashes in early 2026, the central state regained control of majority-Arab regions like Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor.

3.  The Integration Deal:- Realizing their leverage was waning, SDF Commander-in-Chief Mazloum Abdi signed a series of integration accords with Damascus.

By late August 2026, the SDF announced its formal dissolution as an independent military force, folding its brigades into the Syrian Ministry of Defense, while administrative bodies were absorbed into central state ministries.

In exchange for giving up military independence, Syrian Kurds have gained long-denied civil rights; the restoration of citizenship to tens of thousands of previously stateless Kurds, the constitutional recognition of the Kurdish language in local schools, and cultural protections. Yet, overnight, the de facto Kurdish state vanished.

Caught in the Crossfire: Turkey vs. Israel

With internal Syrian factions coalescing under Damascus, Syria’s sovereign territory has become the prime theater for an escalating regional rivalry. The reunification of Syria did not remove foreign troops; rather, it stripped away the Kurdish buffer zone, bringing Turkey and Israel into a direct competition for influence over Syria's political future.

Ankara’s Ambition: Securing the Northern Frontier

Turkey views any armed Kurdish structure near its southern border as an existential threat tied to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

• The Strategic Goal:- For Ankara, the integration of the SDF into the Syrian military is acceptable only if former Kurdish commanders are completely stripped of operational autonomy.
• Leverage Points:- Turkey maintains a massive troop presence along northern Syria and controls client militias inside the Syrian National Army (SNA). Ankara is actively pressing Damascus to ensure that former SDF units are permanently dispersed far from the Turkish border.

Tel Aviv’s Calculation: Containing Turkish Dominance & Securing the South

As Israel works towards its dream of creating a Greater Israel that includes more than half of Syria; Israel views Turkey’s expanding footprint in Syria with deep concern.

• The Strategic Goal:- Tel Aviv seeks to prevent Syria from becoming an eastern province of Ankara’s foreign policy. Historically supportive of Kurdish autonomy in principle, Israel views a centralized, Ankara-aligned Syria as a threat to its northern border stability.
• Leverage Points:- Israel relies on its military air superiority over the Levant to establish strict redlines regarding foreign troop deployments in southern and central Syria. It actively signals that any attempt to allow Turkish military infrastructure or hostile forces near the Golan Heights will face swift military pushback.

Key Dynamics Shaping the New Reality

Strategic Axis	Turkey	Israel
Primary Objective	Neutralize Kurdish autonomous military structures and secure its southern border.	Block Turkish hegemony in Damascus and prevent hostile force buildup near the Golan Heights.
Local Allies	Turkish-backed Sunni groups and elements within the new Syrian defense establishment.	Minority groups seeking decentralization (e.g., Druze, remnants of Kurdish leadership) and intelligence networks.
Leverage Method	Direct troop deployments in the north and economic control.	Precision strikes, air dominance, and covert diplomatic backing.

What Comes Next for Syria?

Syria has exited its civil war phase only to enter a tense diplomatic and military standoff. President Ahmed al-Sharaa faces a tightrope walk: balancing Ankara's demands to purge Kurdish elements while trying to prevent Israeli military intervention aimed at curbing regional overreach.

Whether this integration leads to a lasting peace or sparks a multi-vector foreign proxy conflict depends heavily on how Damascus navigates its political transition leading toward a permanent constitution. For the Syrian Kurds, the military phase of their struggle has closed, shifting their fight for survival from the battlefield to the diplomatic halls of Damascus.

Who is Ahmed al-Sharaa?

Following the historic collapse of the decades-long Assad dictatorship, Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Julani) emerged as the central figure of post-war Syria. Having transitioned from commanding opposition forces to leading Syria’s transitional governance, al-Sharaa was formally appointed as President of Syria in January 2025.

His presidency represents a radical departure from the Assad era, defined by efforts to legitimize the new Syrian government internationally, rebuild a shattered economy, and unify a deeply fragmented state.

Al-Sharaa’s Strategic Realpolitik: Centralization & Integration

President al-Sharaa's ultimate domestic mandate has been ending Syria’s territorial division. The formal dissolution of the autonomous Kurdish administration (DAANES) and the integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the unified Ministry of Defense represented a major victory for Damascus’s centralizing vision. To pull off this high-stakes integration, al-Sharaa engaged in pragmatic compromises:

• Enforcing State Sovereignty:- Al-Sharaa insisted that Syria could not tolerate parallel armies or quasi-independent enclaves, demanding the SDF fold its military structures into the national armed forces.
• Kurdish Rights Accommodation:- In exchange for disarmament, his government granted civil rights long denied under Ba'athist rule, including citizenship for stateless Kurds and protections for language and culture.

Navigating the Israeli-Turkish Tightrope

President al-Sharaa now faces his greatest challenge: preventing Syria’s newfound unity from being crushed in the geopolitical vice between Turkey and Israel.

1. Managing Ankara’s Expectations

Ahmed Al-Sharaa maintains a delicate alliance with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. While Ankara backed opposition forces during the civil war, al-Sharaa must balance Turkish security demands—such as purging former YPG leaders from command roles—without allowing Turkey to treat northern Syria as a permanent protectorate.

2. Avoiding Conflict with Israel

Unlike previous anti-Israel posturing, al-Sharaa has taken an intensely pragmatic, diplomacy-first approach toward Tel Aviv:

• Seeking Security Guarantees:- Al-Sharaa has publicly stated that Syria is actively seeking a formal security arrangement with Israel to prevent further military escalation and stop violations along the Golan border.
• De-escalation Focus:- His administration reaffirmed adherence to historical disengagement protocols, explicitly stating that Syria aims to avoid direct confrontations while leveraging international diplomatic pressure to safeguard its national sovereignty.

The Road Ahead

For President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the end of the civil war is not the end of Syria's crisis, but the beginning of a complex diplomatic struggle. His survival—and Syria’s stability—hinges on whether his administration can build a cohesive national army out of former adversaries while keeping both Turkish incursions and Israeli air power at bay.

President Ahmed al-Sharaa (previously known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Julani) was prominent on foreign security wanted lists for years:

1.  The US$10 Million U.S. Bounty:- In May 2017, the U.S. Department of State’s Rewards for Justice program placed a US$10 million bounty on his head, identifying him as the leader of the al-Nusra Front (al-Qaeda's former Syrian affiliate) and designating him a Specially Designated Global Terrorist.

2.  Rescinded in December 2024:- Following the fall of the Assad regime and al-Sharaa's move to establish a civilian transition in Damascus, top American diplomats met with him directly in Syria. During those talks, Washington officially rescinded and removed the US$10 million bounty, citing his commitments to counterterrorism and his pragmatic political pivot.

Israel’s Security Strategy: Containing Ankara & Safeguarding the Southern Border

Following the fall of the Assad regime and the subsequent military reunification under Damascus, Israel radically reshaped its regional doctrine. Tel Aviv views a central Syrian government aligned with Ankara not as a traditional sovereign neighbor, but as a dangerous vehicle for Turkish power projection right up to its northern frontier.

1. Preventing Turkish Strategic Hegemony

• Active Interdiction:- Israel’s primary strategic priority is stopping Turkey from deploying air defense systems, drone bases, or forward command centers in central or southern Syria.

• Proactive Preemption:- Tel Aviv utilizes precision air campaigns to enforce explicit "red lines," signaling to President Ahmed al-Sharaa that hosting Turkish military infrastructure near the Golan Heights will trigger immediate military strikes against central Syrian assets.

2. The Buffer Zone & Golan Defense Axis

• Territorial Encroachment:- In the direct aftermath of the regime collapse, Israeli forces moved into key high-ground positions across the 1974 UNDOF demilitarized zone to establish an operational security buffer.

• Intelligence Primacy:- Tel Aviv relies heavily on sensor networks, air surveillance, and localized human intelligence to track former rebel factions now integrated into the central Syrian Army, ensuring no anti-Israel elements exploit the power shift.

3. Cultivating Minority Partnerships

• A Druze & Minority Shield:- Deprived of the Kurdish buffer following the SDF integration, Israel has turned toward cultivating diplomatic and covert links with religious and ethnic minorities—specifically the Druze population in Suwayda and remnants of regional leaderships seeking decentralization.

• Leverage Strategy:- By backing localized self-defense mechanisms, Israel aims to prevent Damascus and its Turkish allies from asserting total authority over southern Syria.

Turkey’s Foreign Policy: Demolishing Autonomous Enclaves & Expanding Influence

For Ankara, the collapse of Kurdish self-rule in the northeast and the merger of the SDF into the national defense apparatus represent the culmination of a multi-year national security effort. However, Turkey’s strategy extends far beyond anti-YPG operations—it aims to cement Syria as a core sphere of Turkish geopolitical influence.

1. Permanent Disarming of Kurdish Military Structures

• Neutralizing the YPG:- Ankara’s core requirement for supporting the Damascus central government is the absolute purge of veteran YPG/PKK commanders from Syrian Army command hierarchies.

•   Forced Relocation:- Turkey actively pressures the Ministry of Defense in Damascus to dismantle integrated Kurdish units and redistribute personnel away from the border into central and southern military districts. 

2. The Northern Security Belt & Economic Integration·  

• Border Containment:- Turkey maintains a heavy military presence across northern Syria, using its client forces within the Syrian National Army (SNA) as leverage over Damascus.

• Economic Dependencies:- Ankara links infrastructure, electricity, and trade access in northern cities like Aleppo to Damascus’s compliance with Turkish security protocols, ensuring the central government remains dependent on Turkish goodwill.

3. Countering Israeli Containment

• Projecting Power Southward:- Turkey seeks to position itself as the dominant external power broker for the new Syrian state, competing directly against Israeli influence in the Levant.

• Diplomatic Counterweight:- Ankara leverages its influence within the new Syrian defense establishment to limit Israeli intelligence activity, setting up a continuous air, drone, and proxy tug-of-war across Syria’s central heartland.

Syria is experiencing fresh turmoil because the end of the civil war merely replaced one conflict with a chaotic mix of military integration, ethnic tension, economic misery, and foreign power plays. 

Key Drivers of Current Tensions

• Friction Over Kurdish Integration:- Following the central government's major offensive into the northeast and the formal dissolution of the SDF, transferring administrative and military control to Damascus has sparked deep localized unrest. Tensions are flaring across predominantly Kurdish areas like Kobani, Qamishli, and Hasakah over security arrangements, local authority, and prison administration.
• Economic Collapse and Public Discontent:- The country is facing staggering hyperinflation, severe fuel shortages, and a collapsing currency. Wages cover less than a third of basic household needs, triggering widespread, uncoordinated public protests across major cities and former rebel strongholds alike.
• The ISIS Resurgence Threat:- Security gaps created during the military handover in the northeast allowed thousands of displaced individuals and fighters to escape detention camps. ISIS has explicitly declared a "new phase" of insurgency against President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s government, executing frequent hit-and-run attacks and targeting state officials.
• The Turkey-Israel Proxy Squeeze:- Damascus is caught in a high-stakes standoff between two powerful neighbors. Turkey is actively pushing Damascus to ensure all former Kurdish commanders are permanently stripped of power along its border, while Israel is executing military strikes and enforcing strict red lines to prevent Ankara or hostile factions from establishing a permanent footprint in central and southern Syria.
• Sectarian and Tribal Violence:- Friction remains high in southern provinces like Suwayda and parts of Deir ez-Zor, where local Druze and Arab tribal militias regularly clash with central government security forces over regional autonomy and land rights.
• YPJ Exclusion:- The dissolution of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and its merger into the central Syrian state marked a major turning point for the all-female Women’s Protection Units (YPJ). The YPJ—which gained global attention for leading ground combat against ISIS—has found itself at the center of political, cultural, and ideological friction with President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s administration.
• SDF Compromise Issue:- Following direct negotiations between senior YPJ commanders (such as Nowruz Ahmed) and President Ahmed al-Sharaa, discussions pivoted toward transitioning female fighters out of the armed forces and into civil security structures Internal Security & Special Operations; Specialized Role Proposal but concerns remain over Social Equality and Targeting and Retaliation. So remains to be seen how much SDF is willing to compromise.

Overall Syria is in a crossroads where everyone wants to dictate the path of Syria without taking into account the opinion of Syrians themselves. Also Israel and Turkey want to have permanent influence over Syria. So it remains to be seen how Syria rebuilds itself in the next few years or once again slides back into civil war chaos.